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The 2019 gubernatorial race in Iloilo

Iloilo City politics would have turned out to be dull and unexciting had it not been for the falling out — or so it seems — between brothers-in-law Cong. Jerry P. Trenas and City Mayor Joe Espinosa III. But I will leave the topic momentarily as nothing is as yet definite; there are Herculean efforts going on behind the scenes to reconcile the two.

I will shift my attention to the provincial race: the 2019 gubernatorial elections.

Midway in 2018, a three-way fight was brewing, with 1st District Cong. Richard Garin, 3rd District Cong. Arthur “Toto” Defensor Jr., and 4th District Cong. Ferjenel Biron looming as the protagonists. However, the Dengvaxia scandal erupted, and this dragged Garin down with it. His wife, former DOH Secretary Janette Garin, is in the eye of the storm. That served as a TKO punch against Garin; his wife’s scandal knocked him down, and put out of contention.

Now, only Biron and Defensor are left on the ring. The 2019 race will unfurl as a grudge fight. In 2013, Toto’s father, the incumbent Arthur Defensor Sr., defeated Biron. Apparently, the senior Defensor wants to show that his popularity will carry Toto to victory and succeed him. He wants to retire seeing the Defensor brand continue to run the province.

As early as 2017, Biron had already started wooing municipal mayors outside his congressional district, taking them on short trips abroad for a get-to-know-each-other session. Specifically, he targeted the municipal mayors of the 5th district and the 2nd district. It’s a given that Defensor will harvest the votes in his home district. When Biron began his courtship of the mayors, Garin was still in the running. His math was simple: win the support of the mayors in the 2nd and 5th, and his running would be smooth and easy.

So who has the edge?

In terms of municipal mayors who have lined up in support, there is no question that Biron has the upperhand. But experience shows that the number of municipal mayors backing up a gubernatorial candidate is the biggest key to victory. In 2004, the late Gov. Niel Tupas Sr. scored a landslide victory over then 1st District Cong. Oscar Garin Sr. even though he only had a handful of incumbent mayors on his side. Not only was Tupas outnumbered in terms of municipal mayors; among the five congressmen then, only Boboy Syjuco threw his support for Gov. Niel.

In 1992, then incumbent Gov. Simplicio Grino pulled a surprise victory against Mrs. Olive Padilla, who was backed by four out of five congressmen.

The Ilonggo vote can be unpredictable. When it comes to choosing their Governor, Ilonggo voters pick their personal preference over the dictates of their congressmen. And neither can a hostile President affect a gubernatorial bet’s chances. In 2007, the late Gov. Tupas won in what is perhaps the biggest landslide victory in Iloilo political history against then Vice Governor Obet Armada despite the disfavor he earned from Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Clearly, victory for the governorship depends on the mass appeal, the charm, and the message of the candidates. The elections for governor is really a battle for the hearts and minds of the people, and not just plain political machinery. It is too early to say who will win. Both Toto Defensor and Ferj Biron haven’t started going on media yet to let the people scrutinize their personalities, ideas and platforms.

One thing is clear: the media, notably radio, will play a big role in the gubernatorial race. Social media is not yet that strong as to swing votes this way or that. But Facebook will have a strong influence among young voters.

 

 

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FIGHTING ON TWO FRONTS

I was told the Liberal Party commissioned a poll survey firm to get a snapshot of how the congressional battle between two Tupases — Boboy TupasFive and Atty. Gel Tupas — in the 5th district of Iloilo.
According to my unimpeachable source, the survey outcome showed the incumbent Iloilo vice governor leading his sister in law by a mile. If elections were held during the survey period two weeks ago, Boboy would have trounced Gel by 4:1.
With barely 100 days left before the elections when that survey was done, it shows a hopeless fight for Gel. Her husband, incumbent Congressman Niel “Junjun” Tupas Jr., could not lift her enough to put up a good fighting chance.
Gel’s woes are aggravated by the fact that Junjun is also running for vice governor of the province. Her husband would not be able to campaign as hard for her. He has his own battle to fight.
Junjun is running against Guimbal municipal mayor Christine “Tintin” Garin, daughter of 1st district kingpin Oscar Garin Sr.
The latest surveys showed Junjun enjoying a slight edge over Garin, owing much to the immense political goodwill of the Tupas family name.
But Junjun is navigating through hazardous waters.
That’s because he is violating a cardinal rule in warfare (and politics is basically warfare): never fight on two fronts.
Gel is just proxy for Junjun in the 5th district. The outgoing congressman wants to keep his hold on the congressional district and occupy a position that could propel him to be governor of the province. It’s a classic illustration of “having his cake and eat it, too.”
The Garin clan is not about ready to give Junjun an easy slide into the second highest elected position in the province.
This early, Garin is bombarding the airwaves with TV and radio advertisements. She is determined to put up a stiff fight.
Junjun faces big problems because while Mar Roxas affirmed he is the official Liberal Party candidate and there is no “zone libre” for the vice gubernatorial race, local LP candidates have manifested their open zone policy for Garin.
Even Iloilo Governor Arthur Defensor Sr. has announced publicly he will not pressure his municipal mayors to obstruct the campaign of Garin. That in itself is “zona libre” in disguise.
In the 4th district, come backing Dr. Ferj Biron AccountTwo is certain to campaign against Junjun. Biron is the official candidate of the Liberal Party. His support for Garin will pull the rugs under his feet because the 4th district was always a Tupas bailiwick. For it to go to Garin will deprive Junjun of a traditional political base.
When the campaign period kicks off, Junjun will have to make a tough decision. Does he pursue his ambition to control the 5th district at the same time as his vice gubernatorial bid? Or will he pick one battle and try to win that, sacrificing the other?
He only needs to look back in history to know that fighting on two fronts simultaneously is dangerous. Even the most brilliant military strategists, notably Napoleon and Hitler, faltered and failed when they succumb to that temptation.
Another problem facing Junjun to his vice gubernatorial campaign is the possibility that his own siblings, and die-hard supporters of his late father, Niel Tupas Sr., might openly campaign for Garin.
It would be tragic to see Junjun lose on both fronts.
His overreaching ambition, and perhaps greed, will only lead him to damnation.

Iloilo local leaders in limbo

wounded

via Iloilo local leaders in limbo.

An early look at the 2013 gubernatorial race | The News Today

An early look at the 2013 gubernatorial race | The News Today.